INTRODUCTION
0.1. Background and questions
0.2. Objective of the study
0.2.1 Disadvantaged groups in the labour market
A. Definition of disadvantages
B. Disadvantages in the Korean labour market
Overviews (Table 0.1)
Impact of the crisis on the labour force status by population groups (Table 0.2
and Table 0.3)
Impact of the crisis on employment on the demand side (Table 0.4)
Impact of the crisis on earnings by groups (Table 0.5 and Table 0.6)
Main disadvantaged groups addressed in this study
0.2.2 Employment policy
A. Definition of employment policy
B. Employment policy in Korea
Active labour market programmes
Passive labour market programmes
Main programmes addressed in this study
0.3 Approaches
0.3.1 Framework of analysis
The Target-Oriented Evaluation Approach
The framework of the study
0.3.2 Methodologies
0.3.3 Structure of this study
PART I. LABOUR MARKET ANALYSIS
Chapter 1. Unemployment Theories and Government Intervention
1.1 Causes of unemployment and government intervention
1.1.1 Basic concepts: Types and costs of unemployment
1.1.2 Classical Unemployment and laissez-faire
1.1.3 The Keynesian view and active macro-policies
1.1.4 The neo-classical approaches and limited government role
Natural Rate of Unemployment and macro policies
Micro theories and employment policies for reducing frictions
1.1.5 Institutional approaches and active interventions
The theory of internal labour market
The theory of labour market segmentation
1.1.6 The new theories of the labour market and the NAIRU
The new theories of labour market and employment policy (micro approach)
NAIRU model and role of government (macro approach mixed with micro approach)
1.2 The causes of disadvantages and policy options
1.2.1 The queue theory
1.2.2 The segmentation theory
1.3 Theoretical framework for the analysis of the Korean labour market
1.3.1 Labour market problems in Korea
1.3.2 Historical lessons from theoretical trends
1.3.3 The employment systems approach
1.3.4 A broad analytical framework of the Korean labour market
Chapter 2. Employment Systems and Dynamics of the Labour Market
2.1 The employment systems
2.1.1 Economic growth and employment growth (Table 2.1)
2.1.2 Labour utilization and its determinants (Table 2.2 and Table 2.3)
2.1.3 Welfare and labour market indicators (Tables 2.4 and 2.5)
2.1.4 Policy implications in Korea
2.2 Labour market reactions to business cycles
2.2.1 Institutional settings related to labour market flexibility
Bargaining systems
Employment protection legislation
Replacement incomes for the unemployed
Active labour market policies
2.2.2 The business cycle and labour adjustment
A. Data and methods
Data (Table 2.7 and Chart 2.1)
Previous review on long-term labour market trends: a graphical analysis
Methods: a simple business cycle model
B. Correlation analysis on labour adjustment
Correlation between GDP and labour market indicators (Table 2.8-2.10)
Correlation between real wage and other labour market indicators (Table 2.11)
C. Asymmetric behaviour in the labour market
Asymmetric behaviour in the Korean labour market (Table 2.12)
Labour adjustment of regular workers (Table 2.13)
2.3 Labour market equilibrium: Error Correction Mechanism
2.3.1 Data and models
2.3.2 Estimation results in the ECM
Wage flexibility (Table 2.15)
Flexibility of employment and unemployment (Table 2.16)
Hour flexibility (Table 2.17)
2.3.3 Residual analysis of the ECM (Table 2.18)
2.4 Impacts of the business cycle on disadvantaged groups
Unemployment and labour participation by gender (Table 2.19)
Unemployment and labour participation by age groups (Table 2.20)
Unemployment and labour participation by educational attainment (Table 2.21)
2.5 Chapter conclusion
Chapter 3. Disadvantaged Groups in the Labour Market
3.1 Research design
3.1.1 Data explanation and definitions
Explanation of the URS
Some definitions for the data
Basic data used in this Chapter
3.1.2 Key indicators for defining disadvantages
3.1.3 Models and variables
Methods and dependent variables
Model specification and dependent variables
3.2 Unemployment likelihood in the labour force
3.2.1 Overview: unemployment experience rates (Chart 3.1)
3.2.2 Empirical findings on unemployment likelihood (Table 3.3)
With basic variables (model 3.A1)
Effects of regional labour market situations (model 3.A2)
The household head effect (model 3.A3)
Effects of school-leavers (model 3.A4)
The effect of employment status on unemployment likelihood (Model 3.A5 ? Model
3.A7)
Discouraged worker effects and unemployment likelihood (Model 3.A8)
3.3 (Re-)Employment likelihood of the unemployed
3.3.1 Overview: (re-)employment rates (Chart 3.2)
3.3.2 Empirical findings on (re-)employment likelihood (Tables 3.4 and 3.5)
With basic variables (model 3.B1)
The effect of labour demand (model 3.B2)
Breadwinner effect and number of household members (model 3.B3)
The effects of new entrants and discouraged workers (model 3.B4)
The effect of unemployment spells on re-employment likelihood (model 3.B5)
(Re-)Employment likelihood in regular jobs (model 3.B6)
Previous job and re-employment (Table 3.5)
3.4 Quality of jobs for the re-employed
3.4.1 Mobility between the regular and irregular sectors and its determinants

Mobility between the regular and irregular sectors (Table 3.6)
The determinants of getting a regular job (Table 3.7)
3.4.2 Earnings loss after job changes
Increase rate of earnings over the recent job (Chart 3.3)
Estimates of OLS for determination of earnings (Table 3.8)
3.5 Unemployment spells and their determinants
3.5.1 Overview: unemployment spells (Chart 3.4 and 3.5)
3.5.2 Results of the Tobit analysis on unemployment spells (Table 3.9)
3.5.3 Determinants of disadvantages for various groups
Sex and age groups (Table 3.10)
The poor and irregular groups (Table 3.11)
3.6 Summaries
PART II. LABOUR MARKET POLICY EVALUATION
Chapter 4. Types and Methods of Programme Evaluation (Introductory Chapter)
4.1 Distributional effects of LMPs
4.1.1 Barriers to programme participation
Legal and administrative barriers to entry
Creaming-off: equity-efficiency dilemma
Inconsistencies between measures and reverse substitution
Insufficient supply of programmes and within-group substitution
Workers’ limited information on programmes and other constraints
Level of regional unemployment and implementation capability
4.1.2 Participation rates by groups: a brief international comparison
A. Participation rates of employer-provided continuing training by groups
B. Participation rates of government-supported programmes by groups
Main data and comparison issue
Overview of programme participation rates among countries
Programme participation ratios of youths compared with average workers
Programme participation ratios for women compared with average workers
4.2 Programme effects on individual participants
4.2.1 Evaluation problems and evaluation methods
Evaluation problem: selection bias
Experimental method
Non-experimental evaluation
Lessons from the numerous evaluation methods
4.2.2 A review of programme effects
Public training programmes
Job search assistance
Special youth measures
Subsidies to private-sector employment
Direct job creation in the public sector
4.3 Aggregate impacts of LMPs and alternative evaluation methods
4.3.1 Aggregate impacts of LMPs
Negative side effects of LMPs
Positive macro-economic impacts of LMPs
Evaluation results on aggregate impacts of LMPs
4.3.2 Alternative evaluation methods
Process evaluation
Cost-benefit analysis
4.4 Analytical frameworks
4.4.1 Disadvantaged groups and evaluation issues
4.4.2 Analytical framework of the following Chapters
Chapter 5. PARTICIPATION IN LABOUR MARKET PROGRAMMES
5.1 Research design
5.1.1 Questions
5.1.2 Data and categories of programmes
5.1.3 Models and variables related to LMPs
5.2 Programme participation likelihood of the unemployed
5.2.1 Overview: programme participation rates
5.2.2 Programme participation likelihood for the total unemployed (Table 5.3)

With basic variables (model 5.A1)
With additional variables (model 5.A2-model 5.A4)
Programmes excluding simple registration in PES (model 5.A5)
5.2.3 Programme participation likelihood of paid-workers (Table 5.4)
5.2.4 Programme participation likelihood by PES areas (Table 5.5)
5.3 Programme participation and non-participation by programme types
5.3.1 Overview: comparison between programmes (Table 5.6)
5.3.2 Public works (Table 5.7 and Table 5.8)
The selection rate and creaming-off (Table 5.7)
Participation and selection likelihood (Table 5.8)
5.3.3 Job training (Table 5.9 and 5.10)
Reasons of non-participation in training (Table 5.9)
Logit analysis of the reasons of non-participation in training (Table 5.10)
5.3.4 PES and job placement services (Table 5.11)
5.3.5 Unemployment benefits (Table 5.12)
5.4 Chapter conclusion
Chapter 6. PROGRAMME EFFECTS ON RE-EMPLOYMENT
6.1 Evaluation design
6.1.1 Questions
6.1.2 The basic data set and the evaluation of Kang and Lee
A. Data and methods of Kang and Lee
The basic data (RETU data)
The evaluation method of Kang and Lee
B. The evaluation results of Kang and Lee
Empirical results (Table 6.1)
The advantages and limitations of the study of Kang and Lee
6.1.3 Evaluation framework of this study
Expansion of study area and the renewed data set
Models and variables in this Chapter
6.2 Programme participation probability and sample composition
6.3 Short-term employment effects of programme participation
6.3.1 Re-employment hazard with different non-employment durations (Table 6.5)

6.3.2 Re-employment hazard by worker groups (Table 6.6)
6.4 Mid- and longer-term employment effects of programme participation
6.4.1 Re-employment probability of the full sample (Table 6.7)
Mid-term effects (model 6.C1 and model 6.C2)
Longer-term effects (model 6.C3 and model 6.C4)
6.4.2 Re-employment probability by worker groups (Table 6.8 and Table 6.9)
Mid-term effects (Table 6.8)
Longer-term effects (Table 6.9)
6.5 Possible selection bias problems in our models
6.6 Summaries
CONCLUSION
7.1 Summaries of our analyses
7.1.1 Chapter 1: Labour market problems and unemployment theories
7.1.2 Chapter 2: Macro-analysis of the labour market
7.1.3 Chapter 3: Micro-analysis of the disadvantaged groups
7.1.4 Chapter 4: Evaluation types and evaluation methods
7.1.5 Chapter 5: Participation in labour market programmes
7.1.6 Chapter 6: The impacts of programme participation on re-employment
probability
7.2 Policy implications
7.2.1 The area of government intervention
7.2.2 Policies for equal distribution of programmes
7.2.3 Policies for efficient LMPs
7.3 The limitations of this study and suggestions for further studies
Annex Tables
REFERENCES